Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Recently released documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military action to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Following the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no African state would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.