How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
- Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
While making remarks in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.
Less Leverage
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any nearer a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the war is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.